The new government of Pakistan appears to have little or no idea how it will move forward away from extremism and the threat of terrorism in the country. I remember when
Musharraf took office eight or so years ago, colleagues I worked with who had Pakistani connections celebrated the end of democracy and the imposition of his kind of tough military rule.
Musharraf was instantly popular but became increasingly unpopular, not least for his support of the west but also his internal policies. His rule unwound and with it he became vulnerable to the sort of end that has befallen so many Pakistani rulers over the last 50 years.
His successor has conceded defeat in the Swat Valley. The first defeat. The view of this area is something akin to Chechnya, bombed out ruins of former infrastructure. Continued homicide bombing has wiped out police stations and government offices and now the schools have been wiped away as well. The Taliban is back. Pushed aside from the rule of Afghanistan but not defeated it has found a new stronghold in a part of Pakistan that the government there has little confidence of defeating. This will not be the government’s last defeat.
Today a terrorist attack in Islamabad signals that nothing has changed with the new government or the concessions made by the new President.
Where will this go? Will Pakistan ultimately, perhaps not now, but over the next few years gradually fall further and further to strict Sharia law and the lawmakers of the Taliban? Is it conceivable that the Taliban could eventually take control of the entire nation? Pakistan is far more westernised and modern than many believe and certainly any civil war of this kind would result in thousands of deaths and no doubt a major exodus of citizens (another reason for the UK’s open door immigration policy to be reviewed). The bankruptcy of the country would follow as foreign investors flee, and tourism all but disappears. Media embargoes will ensure that only those scratchy mobile phone videos will surface depicting the awful atrocities that the Taliban and strict Sharia Law will bring.
If this happens then a major ally in the region will go. It is no wonder that the Big O is looking for an escape route from Afghanistan. I cannot see any way out of that infamous region without the concession of defeat to the Taliban. No manner of western-trained Afghan soldiers or the will of the majority or its government will be able to turn the tide of the Taliban in their surge to reoccupy Kabul. It will be like the fall of Saigon all over again. Americans (and probably British) fleeing in the last packed helicopters as the enemy at the gates swarms the ramparts.
Pakistan falls, Afghanistan either precedes or follows it. Two major nations sharing borders become a stronghold for Islamic rule. There is no turning back. Literally none. The will and firepower of the West cannot defeat this type of rule which exists on personal poverty and the iron-fist.
Ahmadinejad has already said that the numbers are in his/their favour.
Where next?
India has always had a desperate balancing act. Its secular existence has had to tolerate all manner of extremism and terrorism. Muslims control vast areas and from here, with the support of Taliban Pakistan and Afghanistan these regions could quickly become strict Sharia bases from which the Taliban would grow rapidly. Therefore within time the Taliban will control parts of India, but not India itself. India the vast and beautiful nation with such rich history and wonderful people is still a nation of Hindus who will fight for their freedoms and liberties. This war could indeed be the most deadly the nation has ever fought against imperialism or Islam.
The Big O like Clinton before him will become insular. He is already pretty much a protectionist and interventionist. It is the socialist way. This will reflect his isolationist foreign policy. Part of his winning the election was down to his commitment to withdraw from Iraq. He will have this achieved in the next 2-3 years. Now he is sounding out Afghanistan. He is offering a surge, like the one that was so successful in Iraq. He will no doubt put a timeline on this. Does he want to go into the 2012 election with US troops still dying in Afghanistan? I doubt it. Especially as the environment there becomes even more difficult as the Taliban gains ground in Pakistan. The surge will give him a moment to publicly reflect the success of his policy and allow a speedy withdraw before the folly of it is exposed.
Out of Iraq and out of Afghanistan by 2013? I do not think he will commit US troops to any other campaign in the region.
I would look at strengthening ties with India as much as possible. Pakistan is all but lost as far as I can see. It will remain a large and strong enough buffer against the Taliban for a few years yet. Time enough to ensure India is fully prepared to deal with the tide of extremism and terrorism that will come its way in the next few years. India should always have been our ally, more so than Pakistan, for the Pakistani nation is Islamic and therefore susceptible to the fall that I foresee coming. How we can help India further I do not know, these are the answers that the National Security Agency will have. India has to be the priority.
Like Israel has been, is and will remain the
frontline of the war on terror, India will become the next major front. The third front is the Fifth Column of Western Europe, and finally the fourth front is the United States itself.
